2025 U.S. Package Theft Report and Worst Metro Cities for Porch Pirates

Surprisingly, overall package theft incidents appear to have declined for the first time in years, but the financial and emotional toll on households remains significant.

This year marks the 8th annual SafeWise Package Theft Report, where we examine nationwide package theft trends, household incidence rates, state-by-state impacts, risk factors, and prevention behaviors.

For 2025, we’re releasing our findings in two phases:

• Phase 1 (this report) focuses on national and state-level trends, household impact, and the latest prevention and legal measures to combat porch piracy.
• Phase 2, to be published once we complete our analysis of the FBI and NIBRS metro-level crime data, will reveal the Top 10 Worst Metro Areas for Package Theft in 2025, along with deeper city-level insights.

By breaking this year’s analysis into two phases, we can provide timely national insights while ensuring the metro rankings reflect the most accurate, up-to-date federal data available.

Read on to explore where package theft is hitting the hardest nationwide, how Americans are responding, and what trends are shaping the landscape of porch piracy in 2025.

Porch pirates cost American consumers an estimated $15 billion in the past 12 months. But that's just one side of the equation — cost to retailers topped $22 billion in the same time period, according to data collected by ZFLO Technologies, a loss prevention innovator and e-commerce research company. That makes the overall economic impact from stolen packages at least $37 billion over the past year.

But it's not all bad news. For the first time since we started tracking and reporting on package theft, the number of estimated incidents dropped year over year, from 120 million in 2023 to just over 104 million in 2024–2025. That's a 13% decline, indicating that prevention and deterrence may be having an impact.

For the first time in years, porch piracy is showing signs of slowing down. Fewer Americans experienced or worried about package theft in 2025 — but with millions of stolen packages and billions in losses, the problem is far from solved.

Even as national numbers dip, the data shows that porch piracy remains a widespread, highly localized issue, hitting some communities far harder than others.

For the first time, it looks like package theft is on the decline. This year's report estimates that 104 million packages were snatched from porches across the U.S. in the past 12 months — a decrease of around 16 million compared to our 2024 report. While that may seem surprising, it mirrors overall U.S. crime trends, which are declining across the board.

At SafeWise, we're committed to helping you stay informed and safeguard your deliveries year-round. We’re proud to release the eighth annual SafeWise Package Theft Report, in partnership with Dr. Ben Stickle, a criminologist and nationally recognized expert on package theft; ZFLO Technologies, a loss prevention and e-commerce research company; and SimpliSafe's Active Guard Outdoor Monitoring, the most proactive security system service when it comes to stopping a package theft in progress.

Since 2020, we've been conducting our own research into package theft, and we've gathered data from 33,000 Americans. Our research helps us better understand the true impact of package theft — from how often it happens to how many people recover their losses, and the actions people take to prevent it.^1,2 In 2023, we added a specialized Data Analyst to our in-house team at SafeWise, ensuring the veracity and integrity of our proprietary research and data.

In addition to our proprietary surveys, this year's report includes comprehensive data from the retail and courier sectors, thanks to first-of-its-kind research by loss prevention innovator ZFLO Technologies. This data has been the missing piece of the puzzle, and we're thrilled to be able to present the first-ever 360° picture of how massive the toll of package theft really is.

We're also pleased to introduce SimpliSafe as our exclusive security partner for the 2025 Package Theft Report. SimpliSafe's commitment to proactive solutions that effectively deter and disrupt residential property crime as it's happening (or before) makes it our top recommendation for whole-home protection, including  preventing porch pirates from pilfering your packages.

See details about this year's research and rankings in our report methodology.

We've identified the top 10 worst states for package theft based on the financial toll. We also looked at the number of incidents per 1,000 households. This table provides a clear view of where package theft is hitting Americans' pocketbooks the hardest across the country. 

The story behind this year's package theft patterns is more nuanced than a simple roundup of total incidents and dollars lost. Similar to what we saw in last year's metro roundup, we found that the states with the highest financial losses don't always line up with those reporting the most package theft incidents — revealing differences in online shopping habits, package value, and repeat victimization across the U.S.

While California leads the pack with more than $1.5 billion in estimated package theft losses, it's New York that stands out for the sheer frequency of incidents per household. With 965 incidents per 1,000 households, New Yorkers face some of the highest per-capita theft rates in the country — despite having fewer total incidents than California.

This discrepancy suggests thieves may be targeting the same households multiple times, or that package values are higher on average in the Empire State. It's also no surprise that New Yorkers reported the most first-hand experience with package theft in our most recent State of Safety Survey, with 45% reporting an incident in the past 12 months (the highest of any state).

Pennsylvania tells a similar story. Ranked fifth overall for total value lost, it clocks in at 944 incidents per 1,000 households, making the Keystone State one of the most heavily affected states in terms of per capita incidents of package theft. States like Michigan also punch above their weight, showing elevated per-capita rates even if their total dollar losses don't crack the top tier.

Meanwhile, some of the most populous states — like Texas — record massive financial losses but lower per-capita incident rates, indicating that package theft may be more spread out geographically rather than concentrated in specific communities.

We’ve seen this pattern again and again in our research: porch piracy isn’t spread evenly across a state. Instead, it tends to cluster in certain communities, where thieves strike the same areas repeatedly. Knowing this can help you — and your neighbors — focus your prevention efforts where they matter most.

Check back to see which big cities are hot spots for package thieves and how that matches up with the hardest-hit states.

As previously noted, this year is the first time we've seen a significant decline in both the estimated number of packages stolen and the monetary loss to consumers. While it's tempting to tout increased awareness of the problem and wider deployment of package theft prevention tools and actions as the reasons for the decline, it's important to note that the U.S. is seeing a general decline in crime. 

A few conclusions we can confidently come to include continued evidence of repeated victimization and the persistence of high concern about package theft as a crime that's more likely to happen to most Americans than other types of crimes.

To better understand changes in package theft victimization and incidence, the table below breaks down the differences between 2024 and 2025.

Fewer Americans are worried about package theft this year (down eight percentage points from 52% last year), and actual incidents of porch piracy reflect that change — the total number of stolen packages dropped by more than 16 million year over year. 

Driving that shift, on top of declining crime rates, is a drop in multi-package thefts, which fell a whopping 36% between 2024 and 2025. On the flip side, incidents involving only one package increased by 8% year over year.

While the overall estimated total loss to consumers dropped by a cool billion, the average value of each package snatched rose by $11, which is an 8% increase. This rise in value coincides with inflation rates, so this year, package thieves may be nabbing fewer packages, but they're getting away with more of your hard-earned cash.

Package theft cost consumers an estimated $15 billion this year, with the average value of a stolen package ringing in at $143 — an 8% increase from last year. Overall, the value of stolen packages shifted slightly in 2025, with mid-range thefts increasing and lower-value thefts declining. This movement could reflect economic and inflation trends, meaning people are spending more on average so it's less likely to have a low-value package delivered. 

Porch piracy doesn’t just cost consumers — it also takes a massive financial toll on retailers. While the consumer impact is often the headline number, the hidden costs to retailers add billions more to the total price tag of this crime.

This year, for the first time, thanks to our partnerships with ZFLO Technologies and Dr. Ben Stickle, we're able to provide a 360° view of the actual impact that package theft has on the U.S. economy — looking at the cost to both consumers and retailers.

New analysis, utilizing our proprietary survey data and ZFLO calculator logic, estimates the total retail impact of package theft at an astonishing $22 billion, and that may be a conservative estimate. This number reflects only those packages that were replaced or refunded — not including cases where consumers absorbed the loss entirely.

• 42.8% of victims received a replacement item, which represents both the cost of goods and additional customer service and shipping costs for retailers.
• 44.7% received a refund, which combines lost profit margins, refund amounts, and original shipping costs.

Replacement and refund impacts were calculated by product category (e.g., electronics, clothing, makeup, etc.), then aggregated to estimate the total retail economic burden.

When you combine consumer losses ($15B) with retail costs ($22B), the total estimated economic impact of package theft in 2025 climbs to at least $37 billion. That’s money lost through stolen goods, replacement costs, customer care, shipping, and diminished trust in the delivery process.

This total paints a fuller picture of why porch piracy remains such a high-stakes issue — not just for homeowners, but for the entire retail and logistics ecosystem.

Even though fewer Americans say they’re worried about porch piracy, package theft remains the most commonly experienced crime in our State of Safety Survey. This section looks at how concern translates into action — and how victims respond when theft strikes. New data from our victim-focused package theft survey sheds light on what protections households had in place before a theft, what steps they took afterward, and how those choices relate to recovery outcomes.

One of the most revealing trends we see in our surveys is the gap between worry and action. Package theft is no exception. Many Americans wait until after a theft happens to ramp up their security, rather than taking preventive steps from the start.

• 44% of Americans say they’re worried about package theft — down from 52% in 2024, the largest year-over-year drop we’ve recorded.
• 1 in 6 victims of package theft had no deterrents in place.
• Nationwide, 83% of people who experienced package theft added a deterrent afterward.
• Concern remains highest in high-theft states like New York (61%) and Pennsylvania (60%), where household incident rates top 940 per 1,000. Across the U.S. just 44% told us they're concerned about package theft. 
• Experience continues to drive action: Victims are far more likely than non-victims to invest in tools like tracking, cameras, and delivery controls.

When porch pirates strike, most victims act quickly — but the ways they respond can vary widely. This year’s victim-focused survey revealed that 1 in 6 people had no deterrents at all in place to thwart a porch pirate, but a staggering 8 in 10 added at least one after a package was stolen. 

Across the board, delivery tracking is the most-used method, followed by security cameras and video doorbells — but those may not always be the most effective. Such measures often only capture or report the crime, they don't stop a thief from striking.

The table below outlines what types of protection people had in place before a theft and what security methods people adopted after. 

When a package is stolen, most victims turn to retailers and carriers — not police — for help.

• Only 12% of victims reported the theft to law enforcement.
• 27% received a replacement from the seller.
• 19% got a refund from the seller.
• 8.5% received a refund from the carrier.
• Just 4% actually recovered their stolen package.

These numbers highlight why prevention remains the most effective defense. While refunds and replacements have been common, actual package recovery through arrests is rare — with fewer than 7% of victims seeing their items returned following an arrest.

Unfortunately, victims may be less likely to get a refund or replacement from retailers this year. "In our research we found some retailers are getting stricter," Larry Fox, CEO and Founder of ZFLO said. "Instead of offering refunds or replacements when an item is stolen, they only offer store credit. Some are even denying any reimbursement if a customer is a repeat claimant. That's a big shift — and it leaves more responsibility on consumers to protect their deliveries"

This policy shift is largely driven by rising concerns about fraud and retailers drawing more precise lines of responsibility once a package is marked as “delivered." More than half of survey respondents (54%) told us they believe the retailer is responsible for their package — even after it's been delivered.

However, both retailers and the law beg to differ. Until the package hits your porch, the seller bears responsibility for it. After delivery, it becomes your property and your responsibility.

Even though they're no longer responsible, and fraud concerns are sparking caution, many sellers and carriers still want to have a happy customer. Whether they offer replacement, store credit, or a full or partial refund, it's a good idea to contact them to learn your options.

Dr. Ben Stickle, a research specialist in theft and criminal behavior, helped us identify common risk factors for porch piracy. After reviewing hours of porch pirate footage, Dr. Stickle's team found that certain conditions make a home more likely to be targeted:

• Homes with porches less than 25 feet from the street provide easy access for thieves.
• Packages visible from the road act as “open invitations” to would-be thieves.
• Surprisingly, cul-de-sacs are just as vulnerable to package theft as other types of streets.

Additionally, our analysis has revealed some socioeconomic trends among those most frequently targeted:

• Almost 7 in 10 (68%) package theft victims live in single-family homes. 
• 67% of those targeted have annual incomes below $100,000.

Indicators of empty homes — like parked cars that rarely move, lights that stay on or off all day, and open blinds or curtains — can also attract porch pirates.

As of 2025, 11 states and the District of Columbia have laws on the books that specifically address package theft (or “porch piracy”), most of which elevate the crime to a felony offense. Penalties range from six months to 30 years in jail, depending on the state.

Florida and Pennsylvania were the most recent states to enact laws (2024), while Maryland, New York, and Alabama introduced new bills this year. Several states are also tightening related retail theft and property crime laws, which affect how package theft cases are prosecuted.

Current legislation reflects a broader national shift: package theft is being treated less like a petty crime and more like burglary or organized property crime. The table below shows which states are targeting porch pirates.

Porch piracy is a crime of opportunity — but the good news is, you can do a lot to close that opportunity window. Our data shows that the most effective prevention strategies are proactive: shrinking the time a package sits outside, making your home visibly harder to target, and demanding better delivery protections from retailers. These are my updated, essential tips to help keep your packages out of thieves’ hands.

1. Use technology that prevents, not just records
Traditional cameras and doorbells are useful — but they often act as witnesses, not deterrents. That’s changing with SimpliSafe’s ActiveGuard Outdoor Monitoring, which combines smart detection with real-time intervention.

Instead of just capturing footage, ActiveGuard uses two-way talk, sirens, lights, and professional monitoring to interrupt porch pirates in the act. It’s one of the most pragmatic ways to use a camera or security system to actually stop a theft — not just document it after the fact.

2. Track smarter — and expect retailers to do better
Signing up for delivery alerts is still one of the most effective first lines of defense. Apps like Shop (my favorite) give you real-time tracking from multiple carriers so you know the moment your package hits your porch.

But consumers shouldn’t shoulder all the responsibility. I recommend demanding better theft-prevention technology from retailers. One standout tool is the ZakTrak by ZFLO Technologies, a system designed to effectively deter porch pirates. It uses cutting-edge tracking technology, visual and audible deterrence, delivery confirmation, and package protection even after a picture is taken. By providing security similar to what you see in stores to prevent shoplifting, it makes it much harder for thieves to take advantage of vague “delivered” status updates.

3. Require signatures or secure delivery
Whenever possible, require a signature for delivery, especially for valuable items. A signature is supposed to mean that your package ends up in someone’s hands — not on the porch. However, Fox warns that not all delivery drivers follow through.

Another approach is to look for delivery options that don't leave your packages exposed: locker, in-home, and in-garage delivery may be available. Although it might require some extra steps to pull of a more secure delivery, it drastically reduces your risk of theft. Remember: A porch pirate can’t steal what they can’t see.

4. Rethink where your packages land
If you know you won’t be home, don’t leave your packages to chance. Have them delivered:

• To a trusted neighbor,
• To a workplace (if allowed),
• To a secure delivery locker, or
• Held at a carrier depot for pickup.

Many local businesses and police departments now act as community-safe delivery spots during the holidays. It’s worth searching for these in your area — your local brewery or library might be a safer “front porch” than your actual front porch.

5. Team up with your neighbors
Porch pirates often target specific neighborhoods in order to grab as many packages as they can in one sweep. A little community coordination goes a long way. Get together with your neighbors and share delivery schedules, keep an eye out for unfamiliar vehicles, and let each other know about recent incidents. A watchful neighborhood is one of the oldest (and still most effective) deterrents out there.

Bottom line

Porch piracy is a crime of opportunity — shrink that opportunity with interactive tech, smart tracking, secure delivery, and community awareness. Prevention beats reaction every time.

This year’s package theft report is based on our own proprietary survey data, ZFLO Technologies research, and FBI crime statistics. For our 2025 surveys, we collected responses from at least 150 people per state — totaling 7,500 participants nationwide — to get a clear, representative view of package theft across the U.S.

Two-thirds of survey respondents provided insights on various types of crime they had experienced, while the remaining third were all victims of package theft. This dual approach allowed us to analyze broader crime trends as well as zero in on the specifics of package theft.

To generate our rankings and crime rate numbers, we combined FBI data and our own proprietary survey data to come up with the metrics we used to estimate actual package theft numbers by state and (coming soon) metro areas. We queried the FBI crime data explorer to pull all reported larceny thefts from agencies in the state, the percentages by state of those larceny offenses that were classified as "Other Larceny" (which package theft is usually classified as), and the percentages of those classified offenses that occurred at a home/residence and from a building (which is what package theft would count as).

We then estimated what the total reported incidents would be if all agencies reported their numbers based on the percentage of the population that had reported metrics. We then estimated the number of non-reported incidents and the dollar value of all incidents based on our proprietary survey data. With those two metrics, we ranked each metro and state by their per capita (1,000) package theft incidents and total value lost to porch piracy.

SafeWise Package Theft Survey
The 2025 SafeWise Package Theft Survey used a 20-question online survey fielded in August 2025 using Pollfish. We collected responses from 2,500 respondents (50 from each state) across the U.S. who’ve had a package stolen. The survey asked participants about their first-hand experiences with package theft.

Respondents were asked explicitly about their experiences with package theft in the 12 months prior to the survey, including if they experienced it multiple times, the value of stolen packages, and any methods employed to prevent package theft before and after experiencing a theft. 

Pollfish survey methodology
Pollfish employs a survey methodology called Random Device Engagement (RDE) to reach a vast audience without using monetary incentives. RDE is an evolution of Random Digit Dialing (RDD) and operates within popular mobile apps. This approach leverages a neutral environment similar to RDD and targets users not intentionally participating in surveys.

SafeWise State of Safety survey methodology
The State of Safety is a nationwide survey that dives into America’s top safety concerns. Over the past seven years, we’ve surveyed more than 35,000 Americans — at least 700 from every state — to discover their perceptions and attitudes about safety and crime.

Lux Insights fielded the most recent State of Safety survey in August 2025. Lux surveyed 5,000 residents across the U.S. (at least 100 in each state), and based on the number of completes, there is a margin of error (MOE) of ±1.4%. Each state has an MOE of approximately ±9.8%. Quotas were set to ensure age, HHI, gender, and ethnicity breakouts aligned with census data.​

One section of the survey is devoted to package theft, focusing on experience with and concern about it over the 12 months prior to the survey. Read the full methodology.

1. SafeWise, 2025 Package Theft Survey. August 2025. 
2. Lux Insights and SafeWise, State of Safety Survey. August 2025. 
3. Katie Smith, NewsNation, "Should Porch Pirates Go to Prison? Some States Say Yes," November, 2023. 
4. Alex Leroux, KLTV, Gray Television, Inc., "New Law Raises Punishment for Package Theft," August 2019.
5. FBI Crime Data Explorer.

Although package theft, if represented at all, is included in the FBI data among larceny-theft incidents, SafeWise recognizes it as a subcategory that is growing across the country. We have adopted the definition of package theft as identified in an American Journal of Criminal Justice study.

Package theft definition: “Taking possession of a package or its contents, outside of a residence or business, where it has been commercially delivered or has been left for commercial pick-up, with intent to deprive the rightful owner of the contents.”